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A Visualization Tool for One- and Two-Way Analysis of Variance. Kingsborough Community College. (City University of New York) Journal of Statistics Education Volume 13, Number 1 (2005), ww2.amstat.org/publications/jse/v13n1/sturm-beiss.html. Copyright 2005 by Rachel Sturm-Beiss, all rights reserved. This text may be freely shared among individuals, but it may not be republished in any medium without express written consent from the authors and advance notification of the editor. Online Analysis Of Diamond! Key Words: ANOVA; Java applet. The ANOVA model is the simplest linear statistical model with qualitative independent variables.

ANOVA, together with simple linear regression, form a foundation for the study of to others general linear models. However, exercises relating ANOVA model parameters and calculated quantities are not easy to formulate. As a result, typical textbook exercises emphasize calculations, leaving the model as an buy essay analysis of diamond advertisement abstract entity. Therefore, it is school essays, of pedagogical value to have ancillary materials that help students visualize model parameters and their relationship to sample observations. We present a tool (in the cheap of diamond advertisement form of a java applet) that emphasizes the ANOVA probabilistic model by placing model parameters along-side observations, and giving the student the paper canada executive ability to manipulate values and to observe resulting effects, thus removing some of the buy essay online cheap analysis of diamond advertisement abstraction.

Taur (1999) introduced an excellent example of such a teaching tool for systems transform, nonlinear regression, called “Visual Fit” and Anderson-Cook and Dorai-Raj (2003) reviewed such java applets that demonstrate the cheap power of a test. The ANOVA one-way approach here recommended starts with treatment group means m i for systems, i=1,2,3 and variance (the two-way model consists of two factor variables with three and cheap analysis advertisement, two factor levels each). Are Custom Essay Services Llc Delaware Filing! Random normal N(m i , ) samples are generated within each treatment group and estimated sample means, variances and other quantities are calculated and displayed. We display data, actual parameter values, and online cheap, estimated parameter values in a scatter plot augmented with graphs, ANOVA table, explanations, and exercises. The student can change parameter values (through standard window’s interface such as “drag-and-drop”, text boxes, list boxes etc. ) and observe the online executive effect on calculated quantities and buy essay cheap of diamond, model significance. Guided exercises and explanations help the student in this process. This visual teaching tool differs from traditional exercises in which sample observations (but not parameter values) are available. In particular, the Essays student is able to generate many random samples for the same set of parameters and to get a feel for statistical significance as a phenomenon that emerges over a large number of random samples. Y ijk = the k th obswervation in the ij th group.

+ + + = = the mean of the treatment group corresponding to buy essay cheap analysis of diamond advertisement the i th level of A and the j th level of B. , i = 1, 2, 3 are factor A main effects. , j = 1, 2 are factor B main effects. , i = 1, 2, 3 and j = 1, 2 are the AB interaction effects. We assume that factor variables A and B may interact. If there is no interaction, then the interaction effects are all 0, and social responsibility on equality, the model is online analysis advertisement, additive: = + . The following figures and the comments below them illustrate some of the features of the ANOVA tool. Figure 1. Are Custom Services Legalzoom Llc Delaware Filing! Two-way ANOVA. A parameter treatment group mean for the population corresponding to the i = 3 rd level of A and analysis of diamond, the j = 2 nd level of B , i.e. ( Drag and Drop point ) The value of The sample treatment group mean Observation Y 12k (the number of observations is set by the user) A main effect of factor variable B, i.e. ( Drag and Drop point ) A main effect of factor variable A, i.e. ( Drag and Drop point ) The parameter treatment group mean ( Drag and Drop point ) The overall mean The sum of squares bar graph The text area for exercises and services llc delaware deadline, explanations The ANOVA table User controls: Choose one or two-way model. Set the value of sigma. View explanations of various aspects of ANOVA. Choose another sample. Choose a guided exercise. Choose the sample size.

Request an explanation of the two plots. Display data values in the text area. Online Cheap! Figure 2. One-way ANOVA. A parameter treatment group mean for service to others essay, the population corresponding to the i = 3 rd level of A, i.e. ( Drag and Drop point ) The value of The sample treatment group mean The overall mean A main effect of factor variable A, i.e. Buy Essay Of Diamond Advertisement! ( Drag and Drop point ) Observation Y 1k (the number of observations is set by the user) The sum of Essays on teenage pregnancy … squares bar graph The text area for exercises and explanations The ANOVA table User controls: Choose one or two-way model. Set the value of sigma. View explanations of various aspects of advertisement ANOVA. Choose another sample.

Choose a guided exercise. Choose the sample size. ! Request an explanation of the two plots. Display data values in the text area . Buy Essay Online Cheap Analysis Of Diamond Advertisement! 3.1 Compare population means to sample means - One Way Model: 3.2 Demonstrate a type I error - One Way Model: 3.3 Estimate the probability of how information business a type II error - One Way Model: 3.4 Show that when factor variables do not interact the of diamond advertisement two-way model is responsibility essays on equality, additive - Two Way Model: Applets such as the one described here are tools that could easily be incorporated into lectures and assignments as accessibility through the internet is simple and not costly. We believe that the ANOVA and other related java applet visual teaching tools can help students of statistics and students from online of diamond advertisement related disciplines gain a better understanding of ANOVA and other statistical techniques.

Anderson-Cook, C. M. and Dorai-Raj, S (2003), “Making the Concepts of Power and Sample Size Relevant and Accessible to in librarianship Students in cheap analysis of diamond advertisement Introductory Statistics Courses using Applets,” Journal of Statistics Education [Online] 11 (3) (ww2.amstat.org/publications/jse/v11n3/anderson-cook.html) Hogg, R., and Craig, A. (1995), Introduction to Mathematical Statistics (5th ed.), New York: Macmillan.

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Dans son rapport sur le projet de loi de finances francais pour 2011, le depute UMP Guy Geoffroy rappelait ainsi que le fichier national automatise des empreintes genetiques (FNAEG) continuait sa montee en puissance, avec 1 582 595 traces genetiques enregistrees au 1er juillet 2010 : Rien que sur l’annee 2010, pres de 375 000 traces supplementaires devraient avoir ete inserees. Depuis la constitution du fichier, de tres nombreux rapprochements d’affaires ont ete realises: 5548 avec une trace non identifiee, 25 884 avec l’empreinte genetique d’une personne mise en cause et 8796 avec celle d’une personne condamnee. Service To Others Essay Keselamatan! Visitant en octobre dernier un laboratoire de la police technique et scientifique, Brice Hortefeux a ainsi rappele l’objectif fixe par son ministere de l’Interieur: realiser des prelevements d’empreintes genetiques sur 100% des cambriolages et des voitures volees retrouvees . Dans le meme temps, et consequemment, ceux qui sont transmis aux laboratoires d’analyse sont de moins en moins bonne qualite. Online Cheap! De plus, il existe plusieurs techniques et methodes statistiques pour expertiser un echantillon genetique. School! Et moins l’empreinte est de qualite, plus il faut recourir a des techniques complexes, mais donc egalement plus compliquees a apprehender par un juge, et a fortiori par des jures, qui n’ont jamais ete formes aux subtilites de la statistique ni de la genetique.

La confiance populaire dans la preuve par l’ADN est telle que, sous la pression des juges, victimes, avocats, procureurs ou encore de l’opinion publique, les experts sont bien souvent sommes de parler, sinon de prendre parti, alors meme que certaines empreintes ou prelevements sont tellement abimes, partiels ou complexes a analyser qu’il est tres difficile de distinguer ce qui releve du signal de ce qui releve du bruit ou encore des artefacts techniques, au point qu’il est impossible d’esperer pouvoir en tirer une expertise veritablement fiable. Mais au lieu d’expliquer la methodologie statistique utilisee, afin de permettre a ceux qui vont juger de le faire un connaissance de cause, nombreux sont les experts et les laboratoires qui se contentent d’expliquer qu’ils pensent que l’ADN est (ou pas) celui du suspect, ou de la victime, entrainant juges et jures a condamner quelqu’un en accordant une confiance aveugle a une expertise qui, d’un point de vue scientifique ou statistique, pourrait pourtant etre contestee par un autre expert… Or, comme le rappelle le New Scientist dans son editorial, les jures americains estiment, a 95%, que la preuve par l’ADN est fiable, et un prevenu est plus susceptible d’etre condamne si le dossier comporte une preuve ADN que s’il n’en comporte pas… John Butler, responsable du groupe de genetique appliquee au National Institute of online cheap of diamond advertisement, Standards and essay Technology (NIST), a ainsi examine 5000 echantillons ADN de 14 laboratoires differents, et decouvert que 34% d’entre-eux comportaient l’ADN de deux personnes, et 11% celui de trois voire quatre personnes differentes. Parallelement, une etude de Dan Krane, de l’universite de Wright, parue dans le Journal of online analysis, Forensic Sciences , a demontre que 3% des echantillons comportant trois ADN differents pouvaient etre interpretes comme ne comportant que deux ADN seulement, et que 70% des echantillons de quatre ADN pouvaient, pareillement, etre analyses comme ne comportant que deux ou trois ADN differents. Or, comme le resume Dan Krane qui, en tant que consultant, effectue regulierement des contre-expertises, si vous ne pouvez determiner combien de personnes etaient presentes sur les lieux, il est ridicule de suggerer que vous pouvez etre en mesure d’identifier le profil ADN ou l’identite de ceux qui y etaient vraiment. To Others! Itiel Dror, professeur de neuroscience au college universitaire de Londres, qui a contribue a l’experimentation du New Scientist , en appelle a la conscience professionnelle des experts : Ceux qui travaillent dans l’analyse des empreintes digitales, et autres disciplines de la police technique et scientifique, ont desormais accepte que la subjectivite et le contexte pouvaient affecter leurs jugements et decisions. Il est desormais aussi temps que les experts genetiques acceptent que, dans certaines conditions, la subjectivite, voire meme certains biais, puissent affecter leur travail.

Le probleme se double du fait que, comme le souligne Linda Geddes dans le New Scientist , les experts n’utilisent pas forcement tous les memes procedures. Cheap Advertisement! Un questionnaire, auquel ont repondu 19 laboratoires americains, canadiens, britanniques et australiens, a revele que 11 d’entre eux interdisaient a leurs analystes d’interpreter les resultats de maniere subjective, mais que 4 d’entre eux l’autorisaient regulierement, et deux autres de maniere exceptionnelles. L’ADN, une preuve essentiellement a charge Si la genetique permet souvent d’accuser, ou d’innocenter, quelqu’un sans trop de difficultes, David Balding, un geneticien et statisticien anglais, n’en estime pas moins que juges et jures sont trop frequemment confrontes a des preuves exploitees essentiellement a charge , pour confondre tel ou tel suspect, et non pas seulement de maniere neutre et scientifique. Il est ainsi courant qu’un laboratoire se voit demander si l’ADN de tel suspect, qui a ete apprehende, se trouve aussi sur l’echantillon preleve sur la scene du crime. - Crews! Ce qui est tout a fait different que de demander au laboratoire d’identifier le ou les ADN du prelevement, sans faire de lien, d’emblee, avec tel ou tel suspect. Dan Krane et William Thompson, professeur de criminologie a l’universite de Californie, ont ainsi soumis un echantillon de salive preleve sur le sein d’une femme qui avait ete violee a 1000 experts , repartis en quatre categories.

Trois hommes avaient ete suspectes, un seul fut condamne. Buy Essay Online Analysis! Les trois premiers groupes devaient estimer si l’ADN de chacun de ces trois suspects pouvait etre identifie, ou non, dans l’echantillon, le quatrieme etant charge d’y rechercher l’ADN de la victime. Tous ont estime que l’ADN de la personne qui leur etait presentee pouvait etre identifie dans l’echantillon de salive en question. Buy Research Paper Online Microsoft! Or, souligne Dan Krane, pres du tiers des affaires qu’il a a traiter, au quotidien, comportent de tels biais d’interpretation subjective… Le New Scientist explique egalement que les experts sont souvent trop proches de la police, et qu’ils en savent souvent trop sur l’affaire, ou les suspects, au point que cela pourrait constituer un biais dans leurs analyses. Buy Essay Analysis Of Diamond! Un expert americain, temoignant de facon anonyme, denonce ainsi les risques de partialite de ses confreres: Les laboratoires criminels ne devraient pas etre places sous le controle de l’institution policiere. - Crews! Nous sommes des scientifiques, pas des policiers, ni des procureurs. Buy Essay Online Analysis Advertisement! Avec Peter Gill, co-inventeur de la preuve par l’ADN avec Sir Alec Jeffreys, et ancien responsable du laboratoire de police scientifique britannique, David Balding a ainsi elabore une methode, le ratio de probabilite ( likehood ratio , LR) , dont l’enonce suffit a mettre a mal l’infaillibilite supposee de la preuve par l’ADN:

Il s’agit de se demander quelle est la probabilite que cette preuve puisse etre utilisee par l’accusation, et quelle est la probabilite qu’elle puisse etre exploitee par la defense. Are Custom Legalzoom Llc Delaware! Ensuite, vous faire un ratio des deux. Online! Aussi surprenante qu’elle puisse paraitre pour un profane, cette methode a officiellement ete recommandee, l’an passe, par l’International Society for are custom services Forensic Genetics (ISFG), et le Scientific Working Group on buy essay online analysis of diamond advertisement DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM), un laboratoire du FBI charge d’effectuer des recommandations aux laboratoires de police scientifique et technique americains, des lors que l’empreinte genetique s’avere complexe a expertiser. Pour Peter Gill, qui deplore le mythe de l’infaillibilite de l’ADN, le manque de comprehension de la part du public, mais egalement des juges et des avocats, est considerable . Graduate School Admission Essays! Ainsi, aux Etats-Unis, il estime que seuls 10 a 15% des avocats dont les clients ont pourtant ete, en tout ou partie, incrimines sur la base de leur empreinte genetique, effectuent une contre-expertise… Dane Krane, lui, estime que le taux serait plutot inferieur a 1%, soulignant la croyance aveugle qu’accorderait les avocats dans la preuve genetique… Bruce Budowle, ancien responsable du laboratoire genetique du FBI, plaide ainsi pour que les laboratoires generalisent la contre-expertise, et la verification, de leurs analyses, et pour que toutes ces donnees et conclusions soient aussi confiees aux avocats et defenseurs des personnes dont l’ADN a ete identifie. 18 des 19 laboratoires interroges par le New Scientist procedent a de telles contre-expertises, mais dans la majorite des cas, le second analyste a prealablement pris connaissance des conclusions de son predecesseur, faussant ainsi potentiellement leurs resultats. Si 15 de ces laboratoires expliquent qu’en cas de desaccord, c’est le superieur hierarchique qui tranche, seuls deux d’entre eux declarent mentionner, dans leurs rapports, l’existence d’une divergence d’analyses… Il ne s’agit pas pour autant de jeter l’opprobre sur l’utilisation judiciaire de l’ADN, ni de conclure que les expertises seraient systematiquement sujettes a caution. Par contre, le fait que l’on ait d’ores et deja autant d’erreurs, et les biais et problemes de subjectivite souleves par le New Scientist , plaident pour une vigilance accrue en la matiere, d’autant que la police et la justice exploitent de plus en plus la genetique dans leurs enquetes.

L’expertise genetique est une discipline encore relativement nouvelle, mais nous disposons egalement de suffisamment d’elements pour ne plus lui accorder la confiance aveugle qu’on lui prete generalement. Dans son rapport, tres critique (voir Quand les experts se trompent), sur le caractere non scientifique des techniques utilisees par la police technique et scientifique, le conseil national de la recherche americain soulignait ainsi que les methodes developpees dans les laboratoires afin d’aider les forces de l’ordre pourraient grandement beneficier des contributions des chercheurs et scientifiques. Et c’est precisement pour renforcer la confiance que l’on peut accorder au systeme judiciaire, et a la facon qu’ont les experts d’exploiter traces et identifiants genetiques, que Dan Krane a publie dans la revue Science , en decembre 2009, un appel cosigne par 40 autres scientifiques et professeurs de droit, intitule Time for cheap analysis of diamond advertisement DNA disclosure (.pdf) (Il est temps de liberer l’ADN), appelant a liberer la base de donnees de profils genetiques de la police americaine, afin que d’autres chercheurs et scientifiques y aient eux aussi acces: Nous pensons que le temps est venu pour le FBI de permettre aux scientifiques d’acceder aux profils genetiques anonymises de sa base de donnees afin qu’ils puissent y effectuer des recherches qui profiteront a l’ensemble de la justice criminelle. Les forces de l’ordre devraient honorer les normes scientifiques et ouvrir leurs bases de donnees ADN au regard scientifique independant. Essays - Crews …! Cela ne pose guere de risque significatif, et ne peut que renforcer la qualite de l’exploitation judiciaire de l’ADN.

Comme le souligne egalement le New Scientist dans l’editorial qu’il consacra a cette demande, si le FBI s’est trompe dans ses statistiques, les consequences sont tellement profondes que nous devrions pouvoir le savoir. Buy Essay Of Diamond Advertisement! S’il ne s’est pas trompe, les recherches ne pourront que renforcer la preuve par l’ADN. Responsibility Essays! Dans les deux cas, la justice en sortira gagnante . Buy Essay! Cette evaluation serait d’autant plus pressante, mais egalement pertinente, que ladite base de donnees est de plus en plus exploitee par la police et la justice, et qu’elle repertorie plus de 9 millions de profils genetiques, augmentant d’autant la probabilite de voir une ou plusieurs personnes partager le meme profil ADN, et donc deboucher sur des erreurs judiciaires. How Information Business! Comme l’expliquent Escondida et Timelos, plus un fichier augmente en taille, plus il est cense etre efficace, mais plus sa fiabilite theorique est en chute libre . Interroge par le LA Times , Jonathan Jay Koehler, professeur de droit specialiste des sciences du comportement, et notamment de ce qui preside aux decisions judiciaires basees sur les expertises de la police technique et scientifique, estime que le taux d’erreur, dans les laboratoires, est de l’ordre de 1 pour 1000, qu’il s’agisse d’ADN identifie, a tort, ou bien, a contrario, non identifie alors qu’il aurait pu l’avoir ete: Personne ne voudrait prendre l’avion s’il devait s’ecraser une fois tous les 1000 vols. Buy Essay Online! William Thompson, considere comme l’un des meilleurs specialistes des erreurs en matiere de genetique criminelle, se rappelle que lors de la creation des premieres bases de donnees d’ADN, on services legalzoom estimait que les innocents n’avaient rien a craindre, et qu’ils ne devaient donc pas avoir peur d’etre fiches. Mais aujourd’hui, quand on buy essay advertisement regarde la somme d’erreurs repertoriees de par le monde – et nous ne connaissons que la partie emergee de l’iceberg -, le probleme se pose vraiment de savoir combien de personnes nous voulons ainsi ficher. Service Essay! Et je n’aimerais certainement pas etre l’une d’entre elles. Cheap Analysis Advertisement! 77% des personnes fichees, en France, sont innocentes En 1994, la loi qui avait cree le fichier genetique americain avait expressement anticipe le fait que des chercheurs pourraient y effectuer des controles qualite dans la mesure ou les informations personnelles et identifiables en seraient retirees , ce qu’il est d’autant plus facile a faire que les identifiants genetiques fiches sont non-codants , et donc non susceptibles de reveler d’informations sensibles (une affirmation cela dit contestee par Catherine Bourgain, chargee de Recherches de l’Unite INSERM 535 Genetique epidemiologique et structures des populations humaines , pour qui il n’y a pas d’ADN neutre ).

Si le FBI s’est deja illustre en essayant de camoufler les erreurs identifiees par certains experts dans son fichier genetique, il refuse d’acceder aux demandes des scientifiques precisement (ou, plutot, officiellement ) en raison de considerations liees a la protection de la vie privee, et des caracteristiques genetiques de ceux qui sont fiches dans sa base de donnees. Ces derniers voudraient ainsi verifier le taux d’erreur, au moment de la saisie manuelle des fichiers. Systems! Une etude portant sur 15 021 profils genetiques contenus dans une base de donnee gouvernementale australienne avait ainsi revele un taux d’erreur de 1 sur 300, ce qui souleve un certain nombre de questions au regard des opportunites manquees d’aboutir sur certaines enquetes . A contrario, l’article que Linda Geddes, du New Scientist , a consacre a cette lettre ouverte, met plutot l’accent sur les risques d’erreurs judiciaires. Buy Essay Cheap Analysis! Elle cite ainsi plusieurs experiences, menees sur pres de 300 000 profils genetiques extraits de trois bases de donnees ADN americaines. To Others Essay! A la grande surprise des scientifiques, plus de 2000 profils partageaient des caracteristiques qui, normalement, auraient du rendre leurs profils uniques . Interroge a ce sujet, Bruce Budowle, ancien responsable scientifique du fichier genetique du FBI, explique que selectionner le profil d’un suspect afin de le comparer a un echantillon preleve sur une scene de crime est a peu pres aussi pertinent que de tenter d’identifier un suspect a partir de sa seule date de naissance: plus la base de donnees contient de profils genetiques, plus grandes sont les chances d’en voir un certain nombre partager certaines caracteristiques. En decembre 2008, la Grande-Bretagne etait condamnee par la Cour europeenne des droits de l’homme a detruire les profils ADN de 850 000 personnes, soit pres de 13% des 6,3 millions d’individus presents dans le fichier genetique de la police britannique. Les juges avaient en effet estime que leur fichage genetique etait une atteinte disproportionnee au respect de la vie privee , au motif que leur casier judiciaire etait vierge, et qu’ils n’avaient pas ete condamnes dans l’affaire qui leur avait valu d’etre fiches, et qu’ils devaient donc toujours etre presumes innocents. Le Fichier national automatise des empreintes genetiques, son equivalent francais, ne comporte, lui, que 1,6 million de profils. Cheap Advertisement! Cree en 1998 afin de ficher les criminels sexuels, et lutter contre la recidive, il a depuis ete elargi a la quasi-totalite des personnes a l’??encontre desquelles il existe des raisons plausibles de soupconner qu’??elles aient commis un crime ou un delit (a l’exception notable de la delinquance routiere et financiere). En decembre 2009, alors qu’il n’en recensait que 1,2 million de profils, le nombre de personnes condamnees enregistrees etait de 280 399, soit 23%.

Dit autrement: 77% des personnes fichees genetiquement, en France, n’ont ete que mises en cause et suspectees, mais jamais condamnees. How Information! Elles sont donc toujours presumes innocentes … Comme le soulignait l’an passe Matthieu Bonduelle, secretaire general du Syndicat de la magistrature, au sujet du FNAEG, “ Il faut reconnaitre qu’il permet de resoudre des affaires, mais on buy essay online cheap advertisement est maintenant dans une logique d’alimentation du fichier. To Others Essay Keselamatan! Personne ne prone le fichage generalise, mais, de fait, on online cheap of diamond advertisement est en train de l’effectuer “ (voir Objectif: ficher l’ADN de toute la population). Condamnes par le code: l’immunite logicielle en question. Les algorithmes sont-ils une nouvelle forme de bureaucratie? Les donnees suffisent-elles pour piloter la ville?

Ou en est le Nudge (1/3)? Tout est-il nudgable ? Bodyware: pour une augmentation ordinaire. Les correlations en leurs limites. La toute petite bonne nouvelle de cet article, c’est que 77% des empreintes genetiques contenus dans le fichier francais des empreintes genetiques sont illegales. Mais il faudrait qu’un avocat, ou une association porte l’affaire devant les tribunaux europeens pour que ces empreintes soient effacees. Merci pour cet article d’une densite, d’une clarte et d’une precision rares.

Je suis epoustouflee par la qualite de ce que je viens de lire. Canada Executive Summary! J’ai appris enormement de choses et en suis d’autant plus choquee par ce que j’ai compris du danger du fichage generalise. tres bel article! Merci beaucoup pour toutes ces informations et mises en lumiere.